The facts behind Labour's big poll leads.



For the past few weeks tbg. has been publishing regular poll updates which have all shown big leads for the Labour Party over the Conservatives that have also shown UKIP and the Liberal Democrats running neck and neck.

But just why are Labour so far ahead despite the fact that they haven't shown any repentance for the mess they left behind let alone a sign of a change in approach?

Well, here's a clue:

Earlier today we exposed how, according to You Gov, 15% of Conservative voters have switched their allegiance to UKIP since 2010.

This in itself amounts to the equivalent of the Conservatives vote falling by six points from 36% in 2010 to 30% now which is probably about right for what the opinion polls have been saying for the last few weeks.

Yet this is nothing compared to the stark figure that's being published tonight.

A new poll shows that 40% of people who backed the Lib Dems in 2010 are now set to switch to Labour in 2015.

This in itself means a net increase of 9.2% of the overall electorate have since switched their allegiance to Labour from the Lib Dems since 2010 in exchange for virtually nothing but blatant political opportunism.

And if reflected in a General Election this would see Labour's vote rise from 29% in 2010 to 38.2% next time around which under current boundaries would be enough to give them a majority of 92 seats.

Which in itself begs the question Is Nick Clegg fast becoming the architect of Labour's 2015 General Election Victory?

Which is why tbg. reporter Geoff Brookings' advice for Cameron is:

1. Stand up to Clegg more.
2. Listen to your roots and your core supporters.
3. Give us a Referendum on the EU.

"Then watch how these figures would change" he says.

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