Thursday, 17 January 2013

Holmes the underdog as poll points to Robinson lead.



Due to restrictions in the number of respondents permitted within this poll, 100 responses were processed despite 115 surveys being submitted. Although Mo would have preferred over 100 samples, at least at this early stage, 100 seems sufficient enough.

Of those that took part, 82% of respondents were male and just 18% female. The gender of participants could not be controlled as surveys were openly conducted.

[51% of respondents from London & North-West] A breakdown of the regions participating saw 35% of respondents coming from Greater London, 16% from the North West, 11% from the South East, 8% from the East and much smaller figures in other regions averaging around 3% each.

Turning to voting intention, 85% of respondents declared that they will most likely be voting in the election while only 5% claimed they would not be.

After Matt Robinsons' bid launch for Chairman the new campaign has received a bounce in support and based on straw-survey released exclusively on tbg. After polling was conducted, hours later at 7PM last night this website backed Paul Holmes to become CF Leader.

Of 100 Conservative Future members surveyed, current voting intention is as follows:

Matt Robinson 41.41%
Oliver Cooper 30.30%
Paul Holmes 8.08%
James Deighton 3.03%

UNDECIDED 16.16%
NONE OF THE ABOVE 1.01%

There remain a fairly large number of undecided voters although this is to be expected at such an early stage of the campaign.

Turning now to the candidates and their general perception among respondents, we see a number of interesting figures. When asked to rank candidates in order of likeability the following occurred:



The most common ‘likeable’ candidate in the first round is Matt Robinson followed at some distance by Oliver Cooper. James Deighton trails behind Cooper while Paul Holmes falls just short of Deighton. Columns 2 and 3 see a general decline in likability for Cooper and Robinson while Deighton actually receives the highest likeability ratings in both. Holmes is generally seen as the least likeable candidate among respondents in all columns. Please note however the unusually high ‘N/A’ category for all candidates particularly Holmes and Deighton.

Respondents were then asked to rank in order which candidate they feel is most and least in touch with the CF membership:



Robinson is considered the most in touch followed very closely by Cooper. Behind by quite some distance is Deighton followed by Holmes. Ideally within these rank style questions, a candidate would like to see their percentage decrease in columns 3 and 4. This is mostly true for all but Holmes, who is considered the least in touch within both columns (seen with highest figures).

Respondents were then given the names of each of the four candidates currently running for Chairman. The aim here was to see how well each campaign was performing in raising candidate awareness. The results are as follows:

James Deighton 46%
Oliver Cooper 78%
Matt Robinson 69%
Paul Holmes 50%
None of them 5%

Oliver Cooper leads in terms of overall awareness while the other candidates gradually fall behind. Perhaps good news for all is the small number of respondents who claim to know none of the candidates (just 5%). It must be noted that overall awareness does not imply either positive or negative association.

Next, respondents were asked to rank which candidate they felt was the most and least experienced within the party:



Oliver Cooper is considered the most experienced within the party (37%) followed closely by Matt Robinson (32%). Paul Holmes follows by some distance on 12% while James Deighton comes in at 10%. Unlike the other candidates in column 2, Deighton receives a much higher score in this column (38%) indicating that by quite some distance, respondents deem Deighton to be the second most experienced among the four. Holmes is considered the least experienced with (34%). Again please note the high number of N/A responses. N/A in this instance infers that a respondent has no knowledge of a candidate’s experience.

The final question is particularly interesting. It asks respondents to name which candidate they think will win the election, regardless of their own preference:



Although you must account for some candidate bias within this question, all candidates have seen a change to their figure. While a Robinson victory is seen as most likely (47%) Cooper has seen a rise of 1% to 31%. Holmes and Deighton are seen as least likely to win among respondents. It would seem likely that a majority of voters for both of these two candidates perceive Robinson as the likely victor, while a smaller figure within see Cooper.

Of course the campaign still has a long way to go until judgement day and anything could happen to change these results. Candidates have enough time to convince voters that they are best suited for the job. In the meantime, polls like this will be conducted sporadically to track opinion throughout the campaign.

Should you wish to discuss these results please do not hesitate to drop me a message on twitter. Follow Mo Metcalf-Fisher @mometcalffisher.

This is an Independent poll not associated with any candidate.

10 comments:

Toby said...

A great poll - let's hope the next polls have a larger amount of respondents.

Anonymous said...

Very interesting polls! Pleased Robinson is winning!

Owen Meredith said...

Fun but meaningless with nothing to stop multiple responses, etc

Anonymous said...

Holmes needs to pull his finger out big time. I'm glad Matt is winning though, he's a decent bloke.

Anonymous said...

Why display Holmes in the header image an not Deighton. James is clearly the better candidate.

James said...

who cares what owen thinks? he was a disaster when he was on the national exec back in 2008: http://conservativehome.blogs.com/cfdiary/

Anonymous said...

just a note that should have been mentioned, the survey software recorded IP addresses to prevent multiple voting....still unless you have lots of time on your hands and several computer devices... Overall though it's the best way of preventing bias!

Anonymous said...

I have a big bar of Lard to loosen the establishments grip on CF. Any takers?

Richard Allen said...

Can you publish the actual data please?

Anonymous said...

While Paul Holmes and Olly Cooper engage in petty squabbling, I can only see the Robinson lead increasing. And rightly so.

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